Service Plays Thursday 5/27/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New Addition to Service Play Forum..Specifically for posting additional topics.

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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NBA NEWS AND NOTES
Home Sweet Home
By Matt Fargo

The Numbers

The Lakers are anywhere from -7 to -7.5 in this Game 5 which is right around where they were favored by in Game 2 at home. The total sits around 219 which is pretty close to where it has been the last two games. With the first four games of this series going 'over' don’t be surprised to see this number go up.

Home Cooking

Home court advantage is important come playoff time and the home court has been a major factor in this series thus far as the host has won and covered all four games. The margins haven’t even been close which is rather surprising for a conference finals series.

The average margin of victory has been 12.8 PPG while the average cover has been 9.4 PPG so there has not been a lot of sweating taking place for bettors. The home team and the over, an ever popular square parlay, has cashed all four tickets thus far.

This trend has carried over from the regular season for the most part. In the four regular season meetings, the home team went 3-1 straight up and against the spread with the lone blemish being the Lakers winning in Phoenix on Mar. 12 by six points. In total, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by nine points or more.

Offensive Fireworks

If you like offense, this series has been for you. As mentioned, all four of the series games have surpassed the total with scoring totals of 235, 236, 227 and 221. While the offenses have flourished with the Lakers shooting 53.2 percent and the Suns shooting 48.5 percent, the defenses will be the key going forward.

The Suns have played more zone defense the last two games so the Lakers have now seen it live and on film and have had a chance to practice for it, though Lakers coach Phil Jackson said they knew it was coming before Game 3. Surprisingly, Los Angeles has struggled, if you call shooting 48.8 percent shooting the last two games struggling, because its offense is made to beat the zone.

“The triangle obviously is an overload offense,” Jackson said. “So you basically take a zone into an overload, which is natural anyway. But the idea of the movement that comes out of the overload is important for us. And our movement was poor, was inconsistent.” The advantage goes to Jackson in prepping for Game 5.

Benchwarmers

The Suns bench erupted for 54 points in Game 4 against the Lakers and that type of production will make things very tough for Los Angeles if it keeps up. Both teams are loaded with superstars but it is the reserves on both sides that could very well dictate this outcome and the Suns seem to have the depth edge.

Phoenix’s bench was outscored by the Lakers bench in each of the first three games and by an average of 7.3 PPG but the Suns outscored Los Angeles by 34 points on Tuesday and the five bench players hit a mind-boggling 62.5 percent on 20-of-32 shooting.

“You know, we’re not the most talented team,” Steve Nash said, happily playing up the Suns' underdog status, “but we’ve got depth and we’ve got to make that a staple of our success.” The Phoenix bench did average 30.5 PPG in Los Angeles the first two games so if it keeps that up, depth could reign supreme again.

Injury Concerns

Coming into this series, the big injury concern was on the Lakers side and Kobe Bryant as he is nursing significant knee and finger injuries. It has not affected him so far though as he has been sensational, averaging 33.8 PPG and surpassing 36 points three times.

The time off between the semis and the finals gave Steve Nash time for his eye to heal and open up after the nasty lump he took in Game Four against the Spurs. At the end of Game 3, he broke his nose and his numbers on Tuesday were down as he had a poor shooting night and dished out just eight assists. We will wait and see if the dings were the cause.

The torn meniscus in the right knee of Andrew Bynum is the big issue right now for the Lakers. He did play a series high 25 minutes in Game 4 but he is no where near 100 percent and the Suns need to take advantage. He is well below his scoring and rebounding averages and his mobility issues are hurting Los Angeles on the defensive side.

Jackson Distraction

Lakers head coach Phil Jackson is gunning for his 13th NBA Title, 10 as a coach, which is remarkable when you think about it. His name has been in the news the last few days but for something other than another championship quest.

Jackson is in the final year of his contract and rumors have started swirling. Last week LeBron James was supposedly house shopping in the Chicago suburbs and this week, the rumor has been Jackson heading back to Chicago to coach the Bulls once again and lead another superstar to numerous NBA Titles.

Those rumors were put to rest by Jackson. “I have not entertained any conversations about that right now,” Jackson said. Even though he declared this prior to the Game Four loss, it was smart of him to get it out there because the last thing the Lakers need is another distraction in a series that has turned the other way.

 

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PICK 'N' ROLL

Thursday's Best NBA Bet

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5, 217.5)

You're familiar with the expression about riding a hot horse until it drops dead? This one still seems to have some legs.

The first four games of this series have gone over the posted total and until Tuesday night's Game 4, when the Suns' 115-106 victory topped the total by a point and a half, they haven't been close.

It's a safe play if you consider the Suns haven't scored less than 107 in their last eight games while the Lakers haven't tallied fewer than 104 during that span. Even on a bad night their offenses are still pretty good.

The first three meetings between these offensive-minded clubs beat the number by margins of 24.5, 20 and 7.5 points, so over bettors have been able to enjoy the fourth quarters without much concern.

With trends like that, surely the posted total has trended higher throughout the series? Actually, no, perhaps because the Lakers are talking about turning up the defensive heat on the Suns when they return to L.A.

"Our defense could have been much better, I think," Bryant said after Game 4. "Coming up here, we lost a sense of urgency defensively. I think our concentration was focused on how to attack the zone. And I think it kind of flipped our attention to detail defensively. Our focus was on the other side of the floor, which doesn't win championships. So we need to get back to ground zero when it comes to that."

Thursday's total opened at 219, a half-point lower than the previous two meetings in Phoenix, but the number quickly dropped to 217.5. Call me skeptical, but I've got to see it before I believe it or bet it.

Pick: Over

 

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

John Ely (3-1, 2.84 ERA) Los Angeles Dodgers

After getting off to a slow start to the season, Ely has been red hot over his last three starts, allowing two earned runs in each outing and winning them all.

Ely's most impressive performance came two starts ago when he held the Astros to five hits in seven innings, striking out eight and walking none.

Ely went three straight starts, or 84 consecutive batters, without allowing a walk, giving up just one in last week's win over the Tigers.

With a fastball that tops out at 88 mph, Ely is relying on his pinpoint control to baffle batters - along with the new-found confidence he brings to the mound.

"I've got enough confidence in what I'm bringing to the table," Ely said. "The fact that if I execute my pitch where I want it, I feel like I have the advantage no matter who I am facing. That's the way you got to go out and feel like every time out."

Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels may be the ultimate boy of summer. As the calendar page flipped from April to May and the temperature has climbed, he has won three straight and his ERA has dropped like a rock.

After going 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five April starts, Hamels is 3-0 in the month of May with an ERA of 2.36. He has allowed only seven earned runs in his four May starts.

"It's nice, summertime," Hamels said. "Your body feels nice, you're kind of stretched out - I have a few innings under my belt, so my body takes over and that's kind of the exciting part of having the great weather."

Despite winning three straight, the lefty's turnaround may have come in a tough no-decision on May 7, when he struck out eight Cardinals and held them to one earned run but watched the bullpen blow it late. He hasn't been leaving wins to chance ever since.

Slumping

Barry Zito (6-2, 2.60)

Zito has gone from streaking to slumping in record time, but the veteran lefty could easily snap out of it without warning.

Still, it's hard to ignore his seven-walk outing two weeks ago against the Padres for his first loss of the season and the nine hits he allowed in a 6-1 defeat to the Oakland A's last week.

Zito fell to 0-4 with an 8.85 ERA against his former team, but he's been across the Bay long enough by now that he didn't blame the emotions of returning to Oakland for his performance. He knows he has some kinks to work out and will try to do so against the Washington Nationals today.

"Today was a lot different than it was three years ago. It was just like any other game, pretty much," Zito said after the loss. "... I definitely have adjustments to make. I'm not content at all. I just have to stay low and keep grinding."

David Bush (1-5, 5.59 ERA) Milwaukee Brewers

It's hard to say a 1-5 pitcher is slumping, but Bush's last three starts make his first nine look like Cy Young.

Bush has lasted just 12.1 innings in his last three trips to the mound, allowing 22 hits and 13 earned runs and almost doubling his ERA (9.49) during that span.

Those numbers are a little misleading in light of the righty's last outing, lasting just 1/3 inning and allowing seven earned runs against the Twins.

"I'm not really sure what I can say other than that's the worst outing I've ever had at any level," Bush said. "It doesn't get a lot worse than that."

Let's hope for his sake that is rock bottom, but his previous two losses to the Phillies and Braves weren't much better.

 

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HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (105, 10)

The small-market Twins have established themselves as one of the AL's elite teams, but they still have market envy when they face the men in pinstripes.

Dating back to last season, the Yankees are 13-1 against the Twins after Wednesday's conclusion of a suspended game. Derek Jeter's homer kept the Twins from winning even in an abbreviated outing.

"They seem to be relentless. That's why they're world champions,'' Twins pitcher Brian Duensing said. " I feel like we're always in every game. Keep plugging away, I think we'll eventually get 'em."

Their chances are better today with Nick Blackburn (5-1) going to the hill, but Yankees starter Javier Vazquez (3-4) has actualy been hotter, posting a 1.38 ERA over his last three starrt's to Blackburn's 2.53.

Vazquez suffered a bruised index finger against the Mets last week but threw a bullpen session Tuesday without any difficulties. Look for him to continue the Yanks' ownership streak of the Twins.

Pick: NY Yankees


Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-190, 8.5)

Familiarity is supposed to benefits the hitters. Reds' righty Johnny Cueto is defying that trend.

In a bit of a scheduling quirk, Cueto faces the Pirates for the fourth time in his last 10 starts - and he has been increasingly effective with each meeting.

After being relatively shelled by the Bucs in the final week of last season, Cueto lasted only five innings the Pirates in opening week, allowing four earned runs and issuing four walks. Then Cueto nearly no-hit the Bucs two weeks ago, allowing only one hit in a complete game shutout.

Cueto has been simlarly strong in his more recent wins over the Brewers and Indians, but he seems to have figured out the Pirates. So have the rest of the Reds, who are 5-15 in their last 20.

The Bucs haven't scored more than five runs in their last eight and were shutout by the Reds again on Wednesday.

"We've got to score runs," Pirates manager John Russell said of his team's poor two-week stretch for the offense. "No one is really swinging the bat really good right now."

Pick: Cincinnati Reds

 

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WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
A New WNBA Season Embarks
By Statfox Staff

The WNBA season begins with a little change as Sacramento closes its doors and Detroit is moved to Tulsa and the Western Conference. This is the league’s 14th season with the Phoenix Mercury the defending champions. Teams like Minnesota and Chicago are on the rise, while strongholds like Connecticut and San Antonio look to return to former elite status. Sports bettors that put in the time have profited handsomely by following the WNBA regularly. Here are the season previews of this year’s squads

Los Angeles Sparks Preview 2010
The Los Angeles Sparks find themselves in a great situation this summer. That may seem an odd statement after the retirement of WNBA legend Lisa Leslie, but the fact remains that the Sparks are starting the process of rebuilding and it is going to start off perfectly.

The first step in any rebuilding process is to find the player you are going to build your team around and the Sparks already had that player in Candace Parker. If the team wasn’t already hers, it is officially now.
Parker, who not only is the face of the franchise, but also the entire league, is simply one of the greatest two or three players in the WNBA, so step one was complete before the rebuilding even began.

While the rebuilding or retooling process begins, the Sparks also find themselves in the amazing situation of still having the talent to compete for a championship. After all, they made an amazing run in the second half of last season after Parker returned to the lineup, only to fall short in the Playoffs. Their tired, older legs were unable to keep up with the eventual champion Phoenix Mercury. Yet, with Parker in the lineup from the beginning, the team can begin to find their rotation, keeping those legs fresh for the Playoffs when their experienced players can take over and do what they do best.

Los Angeles also added a few new faces to the mix, most notably new head coach Jennifer Gillom and WNBA legend Ticha Penicheiro. Her addition to the team is great for two reasons, as she will be a wonderful mentor to the young perimeter players like Noelle Quinn and Andrea Riley, but she will also be able to help the team strive for their goal of a championship. With Riley learning about the league from one of the all-time greats, she should be able to learn about the league and how to succeed at a fine pace, eventually taking the reins from Penicheiro once she is ready to hang them up.

The depth of the team’s post players is of concern behind Tina Thompson, Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton–who has played well in the pre-season–and Parker. As rosters are not set for opening night, it is difficult to truly determine who will get the nod. But the post players chosen to make the team behind these three will have the same opportunity as Riley: to learn behind Thompson and Parker. Whenever it may be down the line that Thompson decides to retire, the post players will have the opportunity to show they can be the post player to compliment Parker into the future.
Fans of the Sparks might not have visions of competing with Phoenix for the Western crown but Los Angeles is capable of making the playoffs.

Seattle Storm 2010 Preview

In a contracted, balanced league, it’s clear that injuries are going to play a major role in how the season plays out. After all, if there’s not much to choose between Team A and Team B, and Team A loses a cog in the machine, then Team B suddenly has an advantage.

And now to the Seattle Storm, who have already seen part of the plan for success removed from the equation: Loree Moore tore her meniscus and could be out for as much as six weeks. The optimistic timeline is a month, but Moore has had serious knee problems throughout her pro career, and the projected backup point guard could well be hampered all summer.

This is of more than idle concern, because Sue Bird, who also has a history of knee problems, turns 30 in October, and can’t be expected to play 35.5 mpg, as she did last year, much longer. With Moore, an experienced and solid veteran to back her up, Brian Agler could have gotten Bird more rest and set the Storm up for a postseason run. Now, however, starting two guard Tanisha Wright must back up at thepoint, and Australian rookie Alison Lacey will have to be counted on to play a much more major role than expected. And, of course, if either Bird or Wright get injured, then Seattle will be in, so to speak, a world of hurt.

And it’s not as if the Storm is set at every other spot. There’s no true post player in sight, and the fact that Seattle is making encouraging noises about rookie Devanei Hampton (who also has a history of knee problems) is indication enough that there’s really not much muscle in the paint. A healthy Hampton would be a decent rookie, but the Storm need much more than that to take full advantage of the time left to Bird and Lauren Jackson.

Ah, Lauren Jackson, the 29-year-old who many feel is the best player in the world. She too is fragile, and last played all 34 games in 2005. She was out there for 26 games last season, and 21 in 2008, and so keeping her on the court is a high priority for Agler. That said if Jackson has to play center and bang around in the paint rather than play power forward and avoid some pounding, her chances of playing more games than last year aren’t going to get any better.

There is good news on the wing, however, where Swin Cash seems fully recovered from her back problems. She had her best season since 2004, but she does turn 31 in the fall, so it’s not as if she’s in the prime of her career either (statistical studies have pretty much identified age 27 as the most likely age for a peak performance).

Camille Little, stolen from Atlanta, has emerged as a solid if undersized power forward, so she’s fine up front – though the Storm would be much better if she were the third member of the post rotation instead of the starter.

And speaking of undersized forwards, Ashley Walker could be primed for a breakout season after being hurt (sense a theme here?) most of her rookie year. The biggest improvement usually comes between seasons one and two, and it would help if Walker can absorb 15 minutes a night in the post rotation.

After that? Well, perennial disappointment Svetlana Abrosimova will take a shot at backing up Cash, and Le’Coe Willingham will try to reprise her role as a surprisingly effective 6-0 post – but the Storm are a much more traditional team than Phoenix, where Willingham thrived last season, and it’s unclear whether she’ll be able to be as effective for Agler.

The bright side, though, is that if the Storm rotation suffers no more injury assaults, then the combination of Bird, Jackson and Cash is good enough to win a lot of games – and if Little improves, Wright holds steady and Willingham, Walker and Abrosimova add value, Seattle will be a very difficult team to beat. After all, there’s no pair of players as good as Bird and Jackson in the West, or in the league for that matter, and if they’re out there for 30+ minutes in postseason, the Storm don’t need too much else.

Seattle has injuries they might have to contend with be it Cash’s balky back or Walker’s knee. In the end “Games Played” will ultimately determine if the Storm are a league force or an also ran depending on availability of its star players.

 

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LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bets

Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun (-7, 161)
The struggling Minnesota Lynx are slowly beginning to get pieces of their puzzle back.

The team reinstated Rebekkah Brunson from the suspended list earlier this week after Brunson missed the first four games of the 2010 WNBA season due to overseas commitments. Minnesota is still without Candace Wiggins, who could return soon from a knee injury, and Seimone Augustus, who is out until June after having non-cancerous tumors removed.

The Lynx are off to a 1-3 start, losing three straight games since winning the season opener. Their most recent defeat was a 94-82 loss to the Tulsa Shock, failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Minnesota is 2-2 against the spread heading into Thursday’s game.

"Candice and Seimone aren't going to go out there and be the answer to our problems,'' Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve told the Pioneer Press.

Brunson, a former WNBA All-Star, should give the team some toughness up front. She’s averaged just under nine points and over six rebounds in her six-year WNBA career. Minnesota needs that boost, especially against a tough Sun squad coming off a win over the Washington Mystics last weekend.

Pick: Minnesota Lynx


Seattle Storm at Chicago Sky (NL)

The Seattle Storm look like true WNBA championship contenders four games into the 2010 season.

They’re off to a 4-0 start for the first time in franchise history. Seattle defeated Washington 82-76 at home Tuesday, fighting back from 10 points down in the second half. Seattle poured in 36 points in the fourth quarter, jumping ahead and putting the final over the 143-point total set by oddsmakers. Heading into Thursday’s game, the Storm are 4-0 over/under on the year.

"I said the same thing at halftime I said before the game except I was a little bit more pointed," Seattle coach Brian Agler told reporters. "I don't consider what I said to them the difference-maker, but I do think that they regrouped and there was a little bit different team playing in the second half."

The Storm ranks third in scoring and has a ton of weapons. Point guard Sue Bird and backcourt mate Tanisha Wright each had 16 points versus the Mystics while forwards Lauren Jackson and Swin Cash chipped in with 14 points apiece. Center Camille Little also struck double figures with 11 points in the win.

Pick: Over

 

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JB SPORTS
3* NBA* Los Angeles Lakers,

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

papayagang

50* Minnesota twins ML
20* Boston redsox ML
20* Tampa Bay ML

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Magic (-4) Wednesday night.

Thursday it's the Lakers. The deficit is 1015 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

You may not believe this but Hondo, who has been colder than Ted Williams lately, cashed with the Dodgers last night to trim the debt to 665 te naces.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch expects the A's to mind their P's and Q's and KO the O's -- 10 units on Gonzalez.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI

Season
Straight Up: 864-374 (.698)
ATS: 662-614 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1587-1485 (.517)
Over/Under: 633-651 (.493)
Over/Under Vary Units: 821-852 (.491)

Western Conference Playoffs, Finals
Game 5, best-of-7 series
L.A. LAKERS 109, Phoenix 107

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS ADVISORS

THURSDAY, MAY 27

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Phoenix (10-4 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (10-4, 8-6 ATS)

The Lakers return to Staples Center looking to get back on track in the Western Conference finals when they face the revived Suns in Game 5.
After posting double-digit victories in Games 1 and 2 at home, Los Angeles dumped Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix. On Tuesday night, the Lakers fell 115-106 as a 1½-point road favorite, their second consecutive SU and ATS setback after an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS). Kobe Bryant piled up 38 points, along with 10 assists, but although he hit 6 of 9 from three-point range, L.A. finished just 9 of 28 from beyond the arc (32.1 percent). Phoenix won the battle of the benches in Game 3, with its reserves outscoring L.A.’s subs 54-20, though starters Amare Stoudemire (21 points, eight rebounds) and Steve Nash (15 points, eight assists) still led the way. The Suns also posted a huge 53-36 rebounding edge, and Alvin Gentry’s troops hit 22 of 32 from the free-throw line, while L.A. got to the free-throw line just 13 times, making seven. Los Angeles is still 5-3 SU and ATS in eight meetings with Phoenix this season. The home team has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings, and the chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups. These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS). The SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the last 16 Lakers-Suns clashes (8-0 this year). Also, the SU winner has cashed in 23 straight games for Phoenix (including all 14 playoff contests), and the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in Los Angeles’ 14 playoff games this year. Los Angeles is 41-7 inside Staples Center this season, but just 21-25-2 ATS. The Lakers are 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) at home in the playoffs. Phoenix is 26-22 SU (27-21 ATS) on the highway (4-3 SU and ATS in the postseason). The Lakers sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-3 overall (5-1 last six) and 5-2 at home (all as a favorite), but they are also 4-13 ATS in their last 17 starts following one day of rest. The Suns are 2-4 ATS in their last five conference finals outings, but the pointspread streaks are all positive from there, including 35-16-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 20-7-1 after an ATS victory and 36-15-1 after a day off. Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 10-1-1 overall (7-0-1 last eight), 5-0 at home, 6-1 in the conference finals (5-0 last five), 6-0-1 after a day off and 7-2 as a favorite. Likewise, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 7-1 overall (5-0 last five), 5-1 in conference finals and 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, though the under is 7-3-1 in the Suns’ last 11 roadies. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, including 4-0 in this series, and the total has gone high in 13 of the last 17 clashes between these Pacific Division rivals. Plus, the over has been the play in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Staples Center (including five of the last six).

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (26-19) at N.Y. Mets (24-23)

Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) shoots for his fourth straight victory and tries to snap his team’s four-game losing skid when he matches up against the streaking Mets and Mike Pelfrey (6-1, 2.86) in the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field. New York has blanked Philadelphia in the first two games of this series, following up Tuesday’s 8-0 win with Wednesday’s 5-0 victory. The Phillies have followed up a four-game winning streak and a 10-2 hot streak by losing six of their last eight games, including the last four in a row. The offense has gone stone cold, getting shutout three times in the last four games while managing just five runs in their last six losses. The Mets have rebounded from a 3-10 slump by winning four in a row, all at home. They’re now 18-9 at Citi Field compared with 6-14 on the road. Also, while the Phillies’ offense has stumbled, New York has tallied 24 runs during the four-game winning streak and 35 runs in the last six games (five wins). The Mets now trail the Phillies by just three games in the N.L. East. The Mets now hold a slim 3-2 edge in the season series, but the Phillies are still 13-5 in the last 18 clashes in this N.L. East rivalry, going 5-3 in the last eight in New York. That said, the host has won 14 of the last 21 meetings. Philadelphia’s last win came on Friday when Hamels held the Red Sox to a run on three hits and one walk while striking out eight en route to a 5-1 home victory. The Phillies have won five straight games in back of Hamels, with the lefty posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four outings. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 when Hamels pitches on the road, even though the San Diego native has given up 14 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings (5.32 ERA) on the highway. Hamels is 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets, with Philadelphia going 2-4 in the last six. He faced New York a combined five times in 2008 and 2009 and gave up exactly four runs in the first four contests before a dominating 4-2 win last September (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings). In two games at Citi Field, he’s allowed eight runs and 21 hits in 10 innings (7.20 ERA), getting a no-decision in one game (Philly won 5-4) and losing 4-2 in the other. Pelfrey is coming off consecutive wins over the Braves (two runs allowed in 7 2/3 innings of a 3-2 road victory) and Yankees (one run allowed in six innings of a 5-3 home triumph). Including a one-inning relief stint in a 20-inning game at St. Louis on April 17, the Mets are 8-2 with Pelfrey on the hill this season, and the right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his nine starts. Pelfrey is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six home starts this season and 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts against Philadelphia. In his last two versus the Phillies – both in Philadelphia – Pelfrey surrendered a combined 14 runs (all earned) on 18 hits (four home runs) in 10 innings, with the Mets winning 10-9 (last September) and losing 10-0 (on May 1 of this season). In fact, his worst start of this season came in that May 1 contest (six runs allowed in four innings). The Phillies are on a 5-1-1 “under” streak, and they’ve stayed under the total in Hamels’ last four starts overall after topping the total in four of his first five outings. Also, the under cashed in Hamels’ last two outings against the Mets after six of his first seven versus New York topped the total. The Mets have stayed low in six of their last nine games overall, but the over is 4-1 in Pelfrey’s last five starts overall (3-0 at home) and 4-1 in his last five starts against Philadelphia. Finally, the under is 12-4 in the last 16 Mets-Phillies battles, including 6-1 in the last seven at Citi Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (28-18) at Minnesota (26-20)

The Yankees look to complete a three-game sweep of the Twins at new Target Field, where Javier Vazquez (3-4, 6.69) is set to pitch for the visitors opposite Nick Blackburn (5-1, 4.50). Monday’s opener of this series was suspended after five innings because of rain, and when the game resumed Tuesday, Derek Jeter hit a home run in the sixth and that was all New York needed as it held on for a 1-0 victory. The Yankees then got a solo homer from Nick Swisher in the ninth inning to break a 2-2 tie and prevail 3-2. Despite taking two on Wednesday, the Yankees are still just 7-10 in their last 17 games (4-6 on the road), which comes on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 104-49 overall and 41-15 against the A.L. Central. The Twins are just 5-9 in their last 14 games – including losing four of five to the Yankees – but they’re still 14-9 through 23 games at Target Field. Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 35 home games. On the flip side, they’ve lost 49 of 71 to A.L. East opponents. Not only have the Twins lost four of five to New York this season, but they’re 17-54 in the last 71 meetings (playoffs included). The Yankees have won six straight in Minnesota, including a victory in the deciding Game 3 of last year’s best-of-5 divisional playoff series at the Metrodome. Vazquez started out his second tour of duty with New York by going 1-3 with a 9.78 ERA in his first five starts this season, but he’s been much better in his last two starts, allowing just two runs on six hits in 13 innings. On Friday, he picked up a 2-1 victory at the Mets, scattering a hit and two walks over six innings, striking out seven. That victory came four days after Vazquez pitched one-third of an inning in relief against the Red Sox, and he was credited with a victory when New York scored four times in the bottom of the ninth inning to turn a 9-7 deficit into an 11-9 home win. With the victory at the Mets on Friday, Vazquez improved to 2-3 with a 5.86 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, he’s made six career starts against Minnesota, going 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA. Going back to 2007, the Twins are 1-5 the last six times they’ve faced the veteran right-hander. The Twins are 6-0 in Blackburn’s last six starts, with the right-hander delivering a quality outing in each of the last four (nine total runs allowed in 30 1/3 innings for a 2.67 ERA). Most recently, he matched up against the Brewers on Friday at home and was staked to a 7-0 first-inning lead and cruised to the 15-3 victory, surrendering all three runs in 7 1/3 innings. Blackburn is 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in four starts at Target Field, with Minnesota winning all four while scoring 31 runs. He also pitched the Twins to a 6-3 win at Yankee Stadium on May 16, giving up three runs on nine hits in seven innings. He’s now 1-1 with a 4.65 ERA in six career starts against New York, including a no-decision in his team’s 4-3, 11-inning loss in the Bronx in last year’s playoffs. New York has topped the total in six of nine overall, but otherwise the Yanks are on “under” streaks of 7-2 on the road and 8-1 against the A.L. Central. Also, New York has stayed low in Vazquez’s last two starts following a 4-1 “over” surge. However, the over is 6-0-1 in Vazquez’s last seven starts against the Twins.
Minnesota is on “under” tears of 10-3 at home, 25-7-3 against the A.L. East and 25-7-2 following a loss. Also, the under is 3-1 in Blackburn’s last four trips to the mound, and his last two starts against New York fell short of the posted total. Lastly, the under has cashed in seven of the last eight Twins-Yankees battles, including the last four in a row.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

 

[BrockLanders]

The Vegas Killers

John Harrison - San Diego Padres -1.5 +170
Nolan Fernandez - Los Angeles Dodgers +110
Dave Eckstein - Colorado Rockies +111
Chad Greene - Atlanta Braves -110 (2 UNITs)
Richie Parker - Oakland Athletics -120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS
Suns
Cubs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA
Reds -1.5 +116

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 9 runs bet. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL's 80% ATS LAKERS/SUNS ELITE INFO WINNER!

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Phoenix.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL

Houston at Milwaukee

The Astros look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 0-3 in its 3 games this season as a home favorite from -125 to -150. Houston is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 27
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Houston at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.490; Milwaukee (Bush) 13.867
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Over

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 16.050; Cubs (Lilly) 15.496
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105); N/A

Game 905-906: Arizona at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.500; Colorado (Hammel) 15.258
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 13.566; San Francisco (Zito) 14.354
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at San Diego (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Walters) 15.012; San Diego (Leblanc) 16.706
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Under

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.223; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.369
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-200); Under

Game 913-914: Atlanta at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.098; Florida (Nolasco) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under

Game 915-916: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.152; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.232
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 917-918: Oakland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.149; Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Over

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.035; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.564
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Over

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 16.315; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.971
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-180); Over

Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 14.151; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.842
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL

Seattle at Chicago

The Sky look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. Chicago is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 27
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: Minnesota at Connecticut (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 104.721; Connecticut 113.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 8 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 7; 161
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-7); Over

Game 603-604: Seattle at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 110.686; Chicago 112.695
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2); Over